Tony, Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday

Tuesday, May 5, 2009 8:13 AM

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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
7:45 AM ET. May 2 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales

Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous -0.7%)

Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous -1.7%)

8:55 AM ET. May 2 Redbook Index

MoM % Change (previous +1.6%)

12MonChgPct (previous +0.6%)

10:00 AM ET. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index

Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 42.5; previous 40.8)

Non-Manufacturing Business Index (previous 44.1)

Prices Index (previous 39.1)

Employment Index (previous 32.3)

New Orders Index (previous 39.1)

4:30 PM ET. May 1 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +4.58M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.56M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.58M)

Refinery Runs (previous 81.5%)

5:00 PM ET. May 2 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous –45)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (MarketClub: Tools For The Trader)

The STOCK INDEXES INO.com Exchanges - Indexes Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1441.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1351.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1428.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1441.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1379.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1351.25. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.25 pts. at 1424.75 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 856.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 904.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 868.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 856.14. The June S&P 500 Index was up 0.40 pts. at 903.20 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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INTEREST RATES INO.com Exchanges - Interest Rates Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange

June T-bonds were lower overnight as it continues to consolidate above the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 122-03. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 118-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-05 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123-17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-05. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 121-21. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 118-05. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
June crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 55.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 54.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.59. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.42.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.26. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's rally, April's high crossing at 149.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 143.91. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 149.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.26. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.82.
June unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's rally, the 25% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 174.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.55 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 159.65. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 174.13. First support is the 20-dsay moving average crossing at 146.72. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.55.
June Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.629. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's rally, April's high crossing at 4.102 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.507 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. If June renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.100 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.740. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 4.102. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.507. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.251. CURRENCIES

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.44 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.05. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.44. First support is the overnight low crossing at 83.81. Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 135.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 129.610 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 134.360. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 135.820. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.117. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.795.

The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is trading above April's high crossing at 1.5067. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, January's high crossing at 1.5300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4770 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.5118. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.5300. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4770. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4397.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at .8908 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8726 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .8895. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8908. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8760. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8726.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 87.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 85.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 87.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.44.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10142. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, April's low crossing at .9867 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .10212 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10142. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10212. First support is last Friday's low crossing at .10047. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10030. NEW! INO TV - INO TV: The premier online video learning platform for traders. - Watch From Your Computer - Avoiding Common Trading Pitfalls by Mark Cook. In this fast-paced video, trading champion Mark Cook shares his ideas for making winning trades. As the first place finisher in the options division of the U.S. Investing Championship, Mark credits research, planning and an attention to detail for his astounding 536% return. INO TV: The premier online video learning platform for traders.

PRECIOUS METALS INO.com Exchanges - Metals Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange
June gold was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews last month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 935.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 884.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 908.30. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 919.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 888.01. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 865.60.
July silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's rally, April's high crossing at 13.250 is the next upside target. Closes above April's high crossing at 13.250 are needed to renew the rally off last month's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 13.250. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 13.905. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 12.025. Second support is April's low crossing at 11.770.
July copper was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.82. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last week's low, April's high crossing at 224.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.27 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 217.70. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 224.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.82. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.27. FOOD & FIBER INO.com Exchanges - Food and Fiber Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange

SOFTS: July sugar closed down 2 points at 15.03 cents today. Prices again closed near the session high. Prices on Friday hit a fresh eight-month high and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have gained solid upside technical momentum recently.
July coffee closed up 20 points at 120.60 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh three-week high today. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for coffee today, as crude oil prices were higher, U.S. stock indexes were firmer and the U.S. dollar was lower. Coffee bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field after solid gains and a bullish weekly high close posted on Friday.
July cocoa closed down $21 at $2,303 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh seven-week low. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for cocoa today, as crude oil prices were higher, U.S. stock indexes were firmer and the U.S. dollar was lower. Yet, cocoa sold off anyway, which is a bearish clue.
July cotton closed up 2 points at 57.22 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh 6.5-
month high. Bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum after a big upside day on Friday. Cotton prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
July orange juice closed up 495 points at $.8920. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh 5.5-month high close today. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for FCOJ today, as crude oil prices were higher, U.S. stock indexes were firmer and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bulls and bears are now on a level near-
term technical playing field.
July lumber futures closed down $6.30 at $171.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh six-week low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
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GRAINS INO.com Exchanges - Grains and Oilseeds Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange

July corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Light support came from Monday's planting progress report for corn, which came in at 33% completed nation wide. This was below pre-report expectations and well below the 5-year average of 50% complete. Additional support came from light rain moving across portions of the Western Corn Belt overnight along with a wet forecast for the Midwest this week. The mid-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 4.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.18. Second resist
ance is January's high crossing at 4.49 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.70.
July wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.73 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 5.84 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 5.18 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 17 3/4-cents at 5.97.

July Kansas City Wheat closed sharply lower on Monday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 6.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.85 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 6.22. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.26. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.89. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.85 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 6.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 6.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.56 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.41 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
July soybeans were higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, weekly resistance crossing near 11.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.33 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11.27. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 11.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.33 3/4.
July soybean meal was higher as it extends this spring's rally. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 360.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 350.70. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 360.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 325.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.70.
July soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 39.92 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 34.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 39.10. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 39.92. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.50. LIVESTOCK INO.com Exchanges - Livestock and Meats Price Charts and Quotes for Futures, Commodities, Stocks, Equities, Foreign Exchange

LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.22 at $81.87 today. Prices closed near the session low today. More losses in the hog futures market today weighed on the cattle market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for live cattle today--higher crude oil and stock index futures prices, and a lower U.S. dollar. Yet cattle futures traded lower anyway, which is a bearish clue.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.22 at $98.67 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a fresh four-week low early on. Short covering was featured. Bears have the near-term technical advantage in feeders.
June lean hogs closed down $1.80 at $63.77 today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and hit another fresh contract low today, amid the ongoing effects of the worldwide flu scare. Hog bears still have solid downside technical momentum and there are still no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand.
August pork bellies closed up $0.45 at $78.00 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep four-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
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