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Mike Parker's Method Use Mikey's method with Medved QuoteTracker™ and say good-bye to pump and dumps.

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Old Thu, 07-21-2005, 07:37 AM   #1 (permalink)
eSology
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the new RSIWRL method for picking stocks

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© 2005 Mike Parker -- EXCLUSIVE TO STOCKHIDEOUT. NOT TO BE REPOSTED OR REPRINTED WITHOUT THE AUTHORIZED PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
MIKE PARKER's RSIWLR SYSTEM FOR EOD ANALYSIS OF STOCKS WITHOUT KNOWING TECH ANALYSIS AT ALL !

PLEASE NOTE THAT A "REALTIME" VERSION OF THE RSIWLR IS PRESENTLY IN BETA AND THAT I HAVE A 2ND VERSION OF THE EOD ANALYZER, USING DIFFERENT INDICATORS THAT IS ALSO BEING TESTED.

IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING THE ORIGINAL VERSION, PLEASE JUST ADD THE FOLLOWING INDICATORS TO UPDATE :

IF A FIRST TIME USER, PLEASE ADD THE FOLLOWING TO THE ORIGNAL DIRECTIONS ---- TIMESERIES FORCAST 5,9,15 and change the present TIMESERIES 30 to 40. When the TS 5 and 9 are UNDER the candle on the chart, a rally is upcoming -- the TS 15 under the candle simply foretells a stronger rally. Notice that the TS 40 presents VERY strong resistance to a stock and if broken, the stock should move up nicely.

So, if the bottom superimposed indicators are bottomed on the analyzer, AND the TS 5 and 9 are under the last candle, you can expect a rally VERY soon, if not tomorrow ! Obviously an indication that you should be watching the stock indeed !
It will not take very long before you can tell by the direction the TIMESERIES lines are pointing, what the anticipated action of the stock shall be.

IF/WHEN the stock begins to rally, notice if the AD line follows or lags behind the RSI line. If the RSI hits top, bends to the right and goes flat and the AD line is PAST 50, but not at the top along with the RSI, there is a very strong probability that the rally shall contine -- NOW USE THE AD LINE in its move towards the 100% mark to judge the length of the rally !



SHORT OR LONG POSITIONS


LONG POSITIONS

DAYTRADING -- using the "lines"
SWING AND POSITION TRADING
ENTER when pps crosses up and over the TIMESERIES 50 and the TIMESERIES 5 and 9 (the 15 will be icing on the cake) and/or the ma 13/20 through the ma 26. ENTER when the RSI 2 or the WILLIAMS passes the 50% mark

if the same trend indicator (momo or A/D) is at the bottom as in a previous long rally, expect the stock to duplicate that rally. if the trend indicators are higher up, the rally shall be shorter ! if ALL THE indicators start at the bottom, the rally should last until the stockhits the NEXT Linear Regression Line (major resistance) !
EXIT when the pps crosses down + over the 3-5ma !

For more details on continuation rallies and holding a swing position, see the explanation of "CYBL" near the end of this post --- good information to show whether or not to hold a stock in a swing position !
============================

SHORT POSITIONS

DAYTRADING -- using the "lines"
SWING OR POSITION TRADING
ENTER when the pps crosses over the 3-5 ma to the downside or when the RSI 2 or WILLIAMS crosses the 75% mark to the downside.
exit when pps crosses the 13/20-26 ma to the upside.


so now, in addition to mikeys method for unbeatable trading I offer for your edification, entertainment and profit making abilities, the RSIWLR system of STOCKFETCHER SCANNING (courtesy of corvino at the stockfetcher site) to just FIND the stocks that meet the requirements of the system, and the free STOCK ANALYZER for ultra fast stock pick elimination/retention -- designed for the picks you happen on during the day, night or any time in between!

Btw, on its first outing, corvinos filter ALONE nailed four out of six stocks as winners for the day. The other two had a combined volume of 61 thousand shares and were thrown out! I guess that figures out to 100% accuracy for the non-otc stocks. Because of volatility and constant barrages of news and manipulation, be more careful when working with the OTC stocks, but you should already know that!

RSIWRL method for picking stocks

First you go to Prophet.Net - Charts, Technical Analysis & Financial Market Data for Stocks, Futures & Options and register for their free delayed service. (real-time could even be used as a standalone trading system, but right now its purely a research tool --- well try real-time next for the 10day/60 minute charts)

after registering, you click on "JAVA CHARTS" on the left side of the upper yellow band on the home page.



Once the java charts page opens, scroll down the page and you’ll find thee java chart (probably for INTC) click on the "TOOLS" button on the upper right of the chart!



That will open a drop down menu and click on "STUDIES" which is the third choice from the top.

That will open a drop down menu with "APPLY STUDIES" which you click on which then opens the "TECHNICAL STUDIES" dialog box!





when you open this box, the large window above will be blank, and what’s pictured above is what you will end up with after you enter the information using the second horizontal selection box (from the top) entitled "SELECT INDICATORS". (I’ve shown the box twice so that you can see ALL the indicators and their numerical values that are contained in the box.

When you click on the down arrow, you will be given a list of indicators and a values for that indicator setting, which you can change (the numerical values) to what I have above. Simply go from one to another, adding each one WITH THE VALUES SHOWN, until you have all 10 entered into the large box.

now if youve got a few favorite moving averages, please use them -- just leave the timeseries 30 as its a very important crossover tool !

Then make sure you have checked the SUPERIMPOSE LOWER STUDIES and SHOW LAST VALUE on the box and click on the SAVE button (upper right) which will ask you to name your chart and CLOSE the box . That’s it from the set up side.

================================================== =======================================




now your new 3 month/daily chart should look like this as long as you check COLOR BARS and HIDE VOLUME on the left side of the chart itself !



===================================


WHATS IT ALL MEAN ?

As you can see, when the red and blue lines are moving TOGETHER and upturn FROM THE BOTTOM, you can expect a very nice rally in the stock. If they move up from a higher position, probabilities are that the rally will be shorter -- most likely the normal 2 or 3 days, depending on the particular stocks rally history! The AD line will become more important to you as you get used to the analyzer, showing as it does whether the stock has sold off completely (AD line at zero) which is a good indication that the buyers will now step in.

on many stocks there will be a cross to the upside by either the RSI or the Williams (one of them crosses the other) --- ALMOST ALWAYS this indicates a rally, be it small or large (see below)

When the green MOMENTUM line and the red ACCUM/DIST lines also start from the bottom that is a VERY STRONG sign of a long term rally, as they are the TREND indicators for this little program!

If the RSIWLR lines cross over the MOMENTUM or ACCUM/DIST lines, note the trend of that indicator --- if the momentum or the accum/dist lines are UPTRENDING, it will usually result in LONGER RALLIES and down trending will be SHORTER RALLIES (often just a one day pop)
.
A stock in an UPTRENDING LRC will tend to have longer and stronger rallies than a stock in a DOWNTRENDING LRC.

the 2 lines cross over percentage point can be tailored to your choice as this system is capable of warning you 2 to 3 days in advance of an upcoming rally (usually when the lines hit zero and start up again) and will even pick up the slight movement in a stock that is being front run. I would suggest starting with 25% as the early warning point and 50% as the " time to buy" point, but paper test it and see where you like to place your "buy" signals!

also understand that it can show "continuation" rallies as can be seen on the chart of TNOG --- starting at the bottom in mid may, dropping down during the sell off of the original rally, then picking up and trending up for the continuation of the rally which first ended in late June. (It had a little sell off and then another M2 induced pop! Please note that ALL the indicators started at the bottom (support) in mid may and continued rising until they hit the 100% point resistance point (and the top lrc) in late June -- study it a little and you’ll get the point pretty quickly!

AND EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY, notice that in the first week of june, the pps CROSSED UP and over the TIMESERIES 30 and the ma 13/20 - 26 --- an extremely strong indicator of a long term rally starting, especially if all the other indicators are low and uptrending !

when using the time series 30 or the 13/20 - 26 moving average crossover as an entry indicator, try using the ma 3 - 5 for exits (after the stock rallies, reaches its peak and then starts to drop thru the ma 3 - 5, time to get out !)

oh, and what will the stock do tomorrow ? well, the rsi and williams are both near bottom, the momentum line is down there also and the accum/dist line is heading down also ! certainly not a stock to buy for a gain tomorrow !



As another example, CYBL after a two day run on a 1 month daily chart (shows the short term resistance better -- the top LRC!)

We could look at moving averages, the macd or any other indicator you can come up with, but like mikeys method for trading, I go for a totally visual style, reduced to utter simplicity ---- but one that tells all!

So look at the RSI and the Williams and see that they’ve banged up against the top LRC, although they are BENDING OVER AND WILL GO FLAT AT THE TOP, since they cant go any higher -- what you can’t see is that the top LRC MOVED UP (look BACK at the FIRST high on the chart and see if the LRC line is sitting on top of it or is now way above it --- if the line is ABOVE the highest high, the LRC has been moved up) when the chart was refreshed which is the plainest statement possible announcing that the stock has more to go and WILL NOT simply sell off after the third day rise! (one can figure if the top LRC line moved, simply by looking back at the beginning of the chart -- if the line is now above the last peak, the line has been moved UP by the present rally !

and confirming that thought, look at the positions of the MOMENTUM and ACCUM/DISTRIB lines, moving together, but only at 60% --- with 40% movement remaining before they hit top, I can easily see this stock going another two days ! ----- WHEN YOU SEE THE RSI BEND AT THE TOP, AND THE AD LINE IS ABOVE 50 AND HEADING UP, YOU CAN BET YOUVE GOT A CONTINUATION RALLY HAPPENING (at that point, you use the ACCUM/DIST line on the one or 3 month chart and watch as it approaches the top LINEAR line -- it tells you that the stock will continue up and when it hits the top linear line, thats pretty much the end of the run) --- one can also use Bill Panetta's "50% Rule" (did the low of todays movement go lower than 50% of the length of yesterdays candle ? Using that rule, the stock also shows it will continue up ---- use BOTH methods and you have a very strong indicator of a continuation play for a swing position !



for those of you out there who wish to SHORT A STOCK, use the two indicators arriving at the TOP together as your EARLY WARNING POINT (if all four arrive at the same time just sit there with your finger on the "short" button) and wait for the stock to drop to the 75% entry point --- if the momentum and/or the ad line agree, youve got at least a short term drop coming up ! if the pps DROPS BELOW the timeseries 30 alone and/or the sma 3 - 5, youve most likely got an excellent longer term short happening !

now you can check your picks and touts quickly and throw away the dogs or the ones on the third day of a run and having done that, you plug the good choices (AND ONLY THE GOOD CHOICES) into mikeys method (we’ve got to think of a new name for that) and hang on to your hats, cause you’re on your way!

If none of that appeals to you, go ahead and use the stockfetcher screener as a stand alone, but please at least check the stock on the little analyzer to see what direction it’s heading in!!


Any simpler than this and ill have to lend you the money and make the trade for you!



trade well
mp


in theory, practice and theory are the same - - - - -
in practice, theory usually blows up !

Or download in pdf RSIWRL_method.pdf
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