Forex Trader Note: We have to be looking at the short side of Eur/Usd overnight, now that S&P futures took the elevator down at the close. If 1.4860 goes, (the 20-day SMA) then by the time Jean Claude Trichet announces ECB rates on Thursday, the 50-day SMA may be in play at 1.4685. That is if global equities take the cue that a 1.5% tumble in 30 minutes equals stock jitters. S&P gave it back, and it will be interesting to see whether the market wants to do the same with euro. FOMC held U.S. interest rates, and offered a stable outlook on forward growth, but still remained bearish on interest rates. We will look to trade the S&P/Usd link, of stocks up = dollar down and vice versa, until the expansion phase hits the global business cycles.

Lots and targets: The near-term trends are completely mixed, as the market holds fair value on risk. Most pairs are at last week’s closing prices

Red Flag Economics:
19:30 EST Aud Retail Sales Exp -2,13B, Prev -1.52B
07:00 EST Gbp Interest Rate Exp 0.50%, Prev 0.50%
07:45 EST Eur Interest Rate Exp 1.0%, Prev 1.0%
08:30 EST Eur Press Conference
08:30 EST Cad Build. Permits Exp 1.4%, Prev 7.2%
08:30 EST Cad Ivey PMI Exp 60.1, Prev 61.7

Dollar Index: The 76.00 area now becomes the swing-point for the dollar index. A four hour close above/below that price point signals which way the market is willing to test the value of the Usd. Swing Point: 76.40

S&P Futures: The 1050 area on the S&P is the near-term top, with a 1065 limit that may see things retreat heavily from. The 1037 area is the swing point to work up and down from at this time. Swing Point: 1037

Crude Oil: 80.45 is the topside number on crude oil trade, and if that hits the dollar will be going lower by default, with 81.75 above that. There is a lot of noise at the 78.65 area, with solid support at 77.50. Swing Point: 78.55

Gold Bullion: 1075 on gold trade will be the swing point area, and that will likely catch the reversal of any long tests of 1095. The short side is protected by 1065. Swing Point: 1075

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