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CURRENCIES: Euro Sets Another 14-month High Vs. Dollar
The euro hit another 14-month high versus the U.S. dollar Tuesday and continued to menace the psychologically important $1.50 level, ignoring remarks by euro-zone officials the previous night expressing worries about the strength of the single currency.
Euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg Monday night repeated their support for the U.S. Treasury's self-professed strong-dollar policy. The euro has climbed 20% versus the dollar since March, making euro-zone exports more expensive to buyers outside the region.
Currency strategists, however, said there was little new in the rhetoric.
The euro traded as high as $1.4994 versus the dollar in Asian trade, according to FactSet, its highest level since August 2008. It changed hands in recent action at $1.4971, up from $1.4941 in North American activity late Monday.
"European politicians will no doubt continue to air their concerns about currency 'misalignments,' although it must be said that beyond the familiar platitudes relating to the U.S. Treasury's strong dollar policy, it is unclear what the Eurogroup is prepared to do, if anything, to raise the ante," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, in a research note.
"Fading speculation about messages against euro strength by policy makers should prepare for the $1.50 break," wrote strategists at UniCredit MIB in Milan. "Expect stop-losses and option barriers to amplify volatility in the first waves of the attack."
The dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, traded at 75.241, down from 75.373.
Euro-zone finance ministers "want a strong dollar; we need a strong dollar," French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Monday night, according to news reports. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner earlier this month said a strong dollar is "very important" to the United States.
In an unscheduled appearance, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters at a news conference with finance ministers following the meeting that "excess volatility" in foreign exchange was "bad for economic development," echoing language from the most recent joint statement by the Group of Seven, Bloomberg reported. He also reiterated support for remarks by U.S. authorities in favor of a strong dollar.
Pressure on the dollar was exacerbated by rising risk appetite, marked by further gains in equity markets. European equities backed off early gains, however, allowing the dollar to recover somewhat analysts said.
Earlier, dollar-denominated crude-oil futures rose above $80 a barrel, hitting a fresh one-year high as traders cheered upbeat prospects for energy demand.
The Australian dollar was in the currency spotlight, after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Oct. 6 meeting showed bank members said downside risks have "diminished significantly," making loose policy no longer necessary.
The Aussie surged to a session high of 93.10 U.S. cents shortly after the minutes were released, but then trimmed gains to trade near 92.72 U.S. cents in recent action, little changed from Monday.
The Australian unit "popped above 0.93 when headlines revealed the RBA minutes noted leaving the cash rate at 3% in October was 'possibly imprudent.' However closer inspection of the minutes revealed the decision to lift rates by 25 basis points was finely balanced and there were concerns about hiking prematurely," said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.
"There was little to suggest the board is about to start hiking in 50-basis- point clips in upcoming meetings. AUD [Australian dollar] appreciation was noted as helping to contain inflation suggesting a measured approach in hiking," she said in emailed comments.
The dollar bought 90.25 yen, down from 90.67 yen in late North American trading Monday.
The British pound bought $1.6422, up from $1.6370.
The Office for National Statistics on Tuesday said public sector net borrowing totaled 14.8 billion pounds ($24.3 billion) in September, slightly below forecasts for 15 billion pounds but the highest on record for the month and an increase from 8.7 billion pounds in the same month last year.
For the financial year to date, borrowing totaled 77.3 billion pounds, up 43.5 billion from the same period last year and the highest half-year total since current records began in 1946.
Trading in the pound was subdued, however, ahead of a speech Tuesday night by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in Edinburgh. That's followed Wednesday by the release of the minutes of the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Traders will watch both for clues regarding whether policymakers will be inclined to extend or pause the bank's 175 billion pound quantitative-easing program.
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