EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD peaked at 1.4917 after an optimistic statement about Euro economy outlook from the ECB, but closed lower at 1.4871, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating indecisive movement. While my technical outlook remains bullish with 1.5060 and 1.5300 as potential target, I think the market is waiting for NFP and unemployment rate today, which expected to be at -175 K and 9,9%. While most economic data both in US and Euro generally show positive signals, many analysts see high rate of unemployment as a potential obstacle to the recovery progress. I have three possible scenarios regarding NFP number

• No surprise: If the actual number is the same or only have small difference with expected number, the EURUSD should continue the bullish.
• Big downside surprise: If the actual number much lower than expected, the Dollar might benefit as risk aversion might increase.
• Big upside surprise: If the actual number much higher than expected, the Dollar might suffer as risk appetite might increase.

On technical side, as you can see in my h4 chart below, after the false breakdown, price reverse higher and made a breakout and now retrace lower, struggling around the upper line of my range area. The way I see it, it’s just a normal downside pullback before continue further bullish momentum. Immediate support remains around 1.4800 area. Break below that area should lead to no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure but any bearish movement should be seen as correction at this phase.

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