Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/09/2009

forexpros · #1 (**permalink**) 09-10-2009, 05:52 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 10, 2009

Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The rise that we expect to be in a 5-wave mode, is still developing nicely, reaching 1.46 for the first time this year. We still believe it has enough strength to reach the top of the channel, which is slowly approaching 1.47. The resistance which stopped yesterday's rise is actually 1.4592 (yesterday's high was 1.4600), and we will adopt it as resistance of the day. A break here would indicate strength that has the ability to lead the Euro to the top of the channel, which is currently at 1.4665. And if this resistance is broken there will be nothing separating the price from December's unforgettable top: 1.4720. As for short-term support it is 1.4548, if broken, the door will be open to a correction of this strong and sharp rise, which is expected to lead to testing yesterday's low 1.4465 and after that 1.4395: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move up from 1.4190 last week to 1.4600 yesterday.

Support:
• 1.4548: short-term support.
• 1.4465: yesterday's low.
• 1.4395: Fibonacci support 50% for short-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4592: short-term resistance.
• 1.4665: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.

---

USD/JPY

Finally, we have tested the most important support level in the current price area: 91.73-91.76, which is the small support area that holds within the lows of July 8th, 10th, and 13th. Price hardly held above it after reaching 91.60. And we think that breaking it would have enough influence to "finally" accelerate the downtrend, and would be followed by a move down to 90.90 or even 89.69. As for attempts to go higher, they would not mean anything without a break of Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 92.20, which stopped the rise twice, during the American & Asian sessions. If this resistance is broken, we think the USDJPY will target areas above 93 such as 93.42, and if this one is also broken, the next stop would probably be 94.16.

Support:
• 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.
• 90.90: Oct 24th 2008 important bottom.
• 90.40: Feb 13th low.

Resistance:
• 92.20: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%, the resistance that stopped the rise twice during the American & Asian resistance.
• 92.74: the previous important support that was broken this week.
• 93.42: AUG 21st low, and SEP 1st high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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forexpros · #2 (**permalink**) 09-14-2009, 06:09 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 14, 2009

Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

As we have expected, the rise stopped between 1.4620 & 1.4667, and from there we have seen a correction that reached 1.4515 until this very moment. We still believe that this correction is targeting 1.4459 at the very least, and that it could go all the way to 1.4357. But, before we feel over-excited for this correction we should see a break of short-term support 1.4501, and after that we can talk about the ideal targets such as 1.4459, 1.4408, or 1.4357. On the other hand, the resistance that should not be broken to keep the big probability of this correction is Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4589, staying below it will favor this correction, while breaking it will mean another attempt to reach the top of the rising channel which is at 1.4671 for today.

Support:
• 1.4501: Thursday's low.
• 1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.
• 1.4408: Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190. And if this level is broken 1.4357 would become the most important support for determining short-term trend, and may be medium-term as well.

Resistance:
• 1.4589: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 1.4671: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.

---

USD/JPY

The downtrend is still advancing as expected: smoothly, and reaching new lows, and slowly moving towards the 90 level. And after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA 100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month's peak. But in order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than that. On the other hand we still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90, the first of which is 89.68/78.

Support:
• 90.29: short-term support.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
• 89.20: Feb 5th low.

Resistance:
• 90.67: intraday top & bottom from Friday.
• 91.22: intraday top.
• 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move from 93.28, and the moving average SMA100.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
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Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #3 (**permalink**) 09-15-2009, 06:37 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 15, 2009

Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro held above the suggested support 1.4501 and rallied to a new top for this trend at 1.4650, which is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is currently at 1.4682 and this will be a curtail resistance, that could stop the current rise and force a correction of good size. We favor the formation of a top in these areas as long as the Euro does not break the top of the channel decisively. After that we expect a move down to areas below 1.45. The only thing that could save the Euro from a sizable drop is a clear break above the top of the current channel. The previous 1.4570 resistance will act as the most important support for short-term, and breaking it means the correction is back on track, and is heading to 1.4459 at least, in the next few days.

Support:
• 1.4570: short-term support.
• 1.4501: Thursday's low.
• 1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.

Resistance:
• 1.4682: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.
• 1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.

---

USD/JPY

As this report expected yesterday, the dollar-Yen moved up slightly in a small correction. Our view is still as it was in yesterday's report when we said: "after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month's peak)." The only changes to this view are that the descending trendline is now below Fibonacci 61.8%, and that the SMA100 is almost exactly at Fibonacci 38.2%. In order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than these levels. We still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90 after this correction is over, such as the important support area 89.68/78. On the other hand, the rising trendline for this correction is currently at 90.90, which makes it the most important support of the day.

Support:
• 90.90: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
• 90.29: short-term support.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 91.22: intraday top.
• 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28.
• 92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
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Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #4 (**permalink**) 09-16-2009, 06:52 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 16, 2009

Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

Reaching the top of the channel at 1.4684, but not breaking it, the Euro is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is slowly approaching 1.47, more accurately it is currently at 1.4691. And between here and 1.4720 we have a good resistance that can curb this slow rise. If this happens, we will break 1.4654 and head towards the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.4607, which the euro needs to hold above to survive the expected correction. If it does not hold above here, the correction would be already underway, targeting 1.4459 at least, in the next few days. On the other hand, if the euro surprises and breaks the whole 1.4691-1.4720 area, then there would be no reason to believe a correction is going to start from these areas. In this case, we are heading to many resistance levels above 1.48 the first of which is 1.4824.

Support:
• 1.4654: Asian session low.
• 1.4607: short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support.
• 1.4534: Sep 8th high.

Resistance:
• 1.4691-1.4720: the resistance area between the top of the current channel on the hourly chart, and the unforgettable top of December 2008.
• 1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

We came close to the ideal target for this correction: 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76), and reached 91.63 yesterday. And now, the falling trend channel is exactly at this level, which makes it the most important resistance for today, more important than 92.10. Although the ideal target for the current correction will still be 91.74, there is a possibility to target 92.10, but when we compare these two targets, we find that the most important is 91.74 since it combines a Fibonacci resistance, and a previous support, and even more important the top of the falling channel. As for the support, short-term Fibonacci support at 90.77 has proven its importance when the price bounced from there twice, once before reaching yesterday's high, and once after. We believe that breaking 91.74 or 90.77 is what will decide the direction of the next hours, and may be the next few days. Breaking the resistance 91.74 will take the price up at least to 92.10, and may be to test the top 93.28. Breaking the support 90.77 would mean that the correction is over, and the down trend is back on track targeting 89.78-89.68.

Support:
• 90.77: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term, which survived twice until now.
• 90.29: short-term support.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
• 92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #5 (**permalink**) 09-17-2009, 05:52 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 17, 2009

Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency. But it is required to stay above 1.4702 to be able to achieve these gains. If the Euro holds above the broken channel, it would be expected to advance to areas above 1.48, specially 14824 and 1.4880. It is very important to hold above this channel which is at 1.4702 now. If we fall back below this level we could see a good move trying to get far from the top of the channel and targeting 1.4641 and below. It is very important to keep an eye on 1.4702 today!

Support:
• 1.4702: the top of the broken channel.
• 1.4641: yesterday's low.
• 1.4560: Sep 15th high.

Resistance:
• 1.4766: previous daily high
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4880: previous daily low.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the 90.77 support and reached a new bottom only pips below the previous one, before it managed to bounce up. What happened yesterday had two effects. First: the area containing the previous bottom 90.19 & yesterday's bottom 90.11 has provided itself as a good support area. Second: the calculation of Fibonacci resistance has slightly changed, and the new Fibonacci retracement levels are 91.32, 91.70 and 92.07. the return above 91 after reaching yesterday's low shows that the dollar has not given up yet, and that it could try again to reach one of the Fibonacci levels mentioned above. The top of the channel is currently at 91.49 (between Fibonacci 38.2% and 61.8% levels). Short-term important support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterday's low, which is at 90.58 and breaking it would probably mean we are going to beak 90.11 and reach a new low below 90 before the weekend.

Support:
• 90.58: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term.
• 90.11: short-term support.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 91.70: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
• 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #6 (**permalink**) 09-21-2009, 06:55 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 21, 2009

Free webinar tomorrow - Market Fundamentals 1

Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday. If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week's high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week. On the other hand, breaking this channel would be a clear signal of weakness, and would mean that we are currently in a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4176 to 1.4766, which is going to target 1.4541 at least, and probably areas below it, the most important of which are 1.4471 & 1.4401.

Support:
• 1.4660: the bottom of the current rising channel, and an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately.
• 1.4579: previous support.
• 1.4514: Sep 14th high.

Resistance:
• 1.4723: the falling trendline from Thursday's high 1.4766.
• 1.4774: previous daily high.
• 1.4824: previous daily low.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen is approaching Fibonacci resistance 91.70, at this very moment, for the third time, and we could see a break in the next few hours, especially after breaking the falling trend channel on Friday, and closing above it. After this break, the most important resistance became 92.07, which is the level that the price should break to show seriousness in breaking the channel. If we manage to surpass it, more upside action is to be expected, reaching, or at least approaching the resistance area 92.70-92.80. Today's short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, which is currently at 91.31, and breaking it would be evidence of weakness, and moving to areas below 90, where some targets await, the first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78. We do not see USDJPY free from pressure without breaking 92.07.

Support:
• 91.31: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low.
• 90.71: intraday support/resistance from last week.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
• 93.28: Sep 7th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #7 (**permalink**) 09-22-2009, 06:21 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 22, 2009

Free webinar today - Market Fundamentals 1

Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro held around the secondary Fibonacci support of 23.6%, which is in the 1.4620 area, and went back up to above 1.47. The "limited" move of yesterday had "limited" effect. We have re-drawn the channel, to make it comprehensive, and to include all the price behavior since the beginning of the month. The bottom of this new channel is exactly at Fibonacci 38.2% support 1.4541, which makes this support a candidate to be the decisive area separating positive from negative territory. As for the short-term , the support is 1.4705, and a break here would initiate a correction for the rise from yesterday's low, ideally targeting 1.4656, the support that if broken would open the road to test the most important support for now 1.4541. Short-term resistance is 1.4756 and breaking it is the key to reach 1.48 for the first time this year, where some targets await us, especially 1.4824 and 1.4901.

Support:
• 1.4656: short-term support.
• 1.4541: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term, and the bottom of the rising channel from the beginning of the month. The most important support for now, breaking it would mean the end of the uptrend for the medium-term.
• 1.4471: Fibonacci 50% for medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4756: short-term resistance.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

We have reached 92.50 for the first time in two weeks, after breaking all Fibonacci resistance levels for the last move down. But even that the Dollar-Yen broke them all, it could not hold above 92, returning fast to test the previous resistance 91.60-91.63 which became a support. In the same area, we find the rising trendline from last week's low 90.11, which ads more importance to an already important area. Until this very moment, the support area has held (today's low until now is 91.62). That is why we will keep this area on the lookout. Holding above here will give another chance to reach the resistance area 92.70-92.80, and may be later test the previous top 93.28. Breaking it would be a surprise after yesterday's advance. And if this surprise happens, we would go back to the negative status of this pair, which would gradually lead to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to targets below it, first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:
• 91.60: previous resistance area, and the rising trendline from last week's low.
• 90.97: intraday support from last week.
• 91.11: Sep 16th low.

Resistance:
• 92.17: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
• 93.28: Sep 7th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #8 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 05:58 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 23, 2009

Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

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In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro reached 1.48 for the first time this year, and also reached the first target suggested in yesterday's report, which leaves the second target 1.4901 ahead of us, could we see it today? The current advance is still climbing (slowly we might add) without showing exhaustion, and the top of the current channel is at 1.49, these thing support the probability of going up. On the other hand, a divergence case on the RSI is developing as we speak, supporting the opposite scenario. These mixed signals could go in harmony if we manage to go up to 1.4901 first then go down to solve the divergence. The most important resistance for short-term is 1.4824, and breaking it is the key to hit 1.4901. the most important support for the short-term is 1.4783, and breaking it would threaten the Euro with a drop to the important 1.4698. Only if we break this support we can start talking about the big correction for the whole move up from 1.4176, because such a discussion before that break would be completely premature.

Support:
• 1.4783: short-term support.
• 1.4698: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term (for the rise from 1.4610).
• 1.4646: Friday's low, and the support area that showed strength recently.

Resistance:
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.
• 1.4962: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the support area 91.60-91.63 to go back into the negative territory again, and to drop more than 110 pips after the break. With that, we came to the end of the rising adventure that stopped at 92.50, and the downtrend came back to dominate. But, stopping near the support 90.51and holding above it, means that there is an existing possibility for another rise, without breaking 90.51. If price manages to hold above this support, there would be a good chance to test a number of important resistance levels most important of which is 91.74. we prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:
• 90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop.
• 90.11: Sep 16th low.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 91.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
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forexpros · #9 (**permalink**) 09-24-2009, 06:26 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 24, 2009

Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.

Click here to join the webinar.

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Euro Dollar

As all other majors, the Euro dropped significantly after the Fed, and went back to 1.4685, but it stood its ground and spent the whole Asian session above 1.47. This return could provide us with the chance to retest the falling and broken trendline, inside the rising channel, which is currently at 1.4646, which is the support of the day. Whereas resistance of the day is Fibonacci 61.8% for "post-Fed decline". This is currently at 1.4782. We expect the Euro to spend sometime between those two levels, before breaking one of them. In case we break 1.4646 the Euro would be already in a correction for the whole rise from 1.4176, which would target 1.4588 at least, and could reach 1.4430. On the other hand, breaking 1.4782 would indicate that the "post-Fed decline" is just temporary and limited, and that we will be heading towards 1.4901.

Support:
• 1.4685: Asian session low.
• 1.4646: the retest level for the broken falling trendline, inside the rising channel.
• 1.4588: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.4176 to yesterday's top 1.4842.

Resistance:
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

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USD/JPY

Not a lot of changes since yesterday, and not a lot to talk about, as the price managed to hold above the important support 90.51, and tried to test the important Fibonacci resistance 91.74, but stopped just below it. Which leaves both the important support and the important resistance from yesterday's report untouched, and we will continue to consider them as the most important levels for today as well. We prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:
• 90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop, most important support for today.
• 90.11: Sep 16th low.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:
• 91.33: short-term resistance.
• 91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for the time being.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

forexpros · #10 (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 06:55 AM

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep. 29, 2009

Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

Moving steady inside the falling channel on the intraday charts, the Euro approached the top of the channel five times, without breaking it, which indicates that the falling trend (for the short-term is still safe. As long as price does not break this channel to the upside, the short-term downtrend will go on, and try to reach the end of the channel, which is below 1.45, during this week. On the other hand, if price manage to break this channel to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach new tops over 1.48, this week also. The most important resistance is 1.4639, which represents the top of the falling channel. Breaking this "top" will mean that we are on the way to areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776. The most important support is 1.4597, and breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

Support:
• 1.4597: short-term support.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.

Resistance:
• 1.4639: the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week..
• 1.4776: previous resistance.

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USD/JPY

The most important support 88.74 held and gave the Dollar-Yen a chance to break the resistance 89.68, and as expected went back above 90. The price stopped accurately (as we can see on the chart) at the previous support 90.20, which provided us with the daily lows for 11th & 16th on the month. That is why 90.20 will be the most important support for today. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. A break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.33, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. The most important support for today is 89.23 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low, and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts. If we break 89.23 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 89.23: Fibonacci 50%, and the bottom of the rising trend channel on intraday charts.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
• 91.33: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.