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10-19-2009, 07:25 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 19/10/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 19, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar.
---
Traders await the Bank of Canadas (BOC) decision on short term interest rate which will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday, 20/10).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Analysts predict the interest rate to remain stable at 0.25%.
---
Euro Dollar
As expected, Failure to break 1.4962 twice, drove the Euro down to the bottom of the channel drawn on the hourly & intraday charts, reaching this bottom with accuracy as we can note on the charts. Failure at 1.4962 could be a signal of a change in trend before reaching the top of the channel. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. Short-term support is Fibonacci support 1.4849, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop. Short-term resistance is 1.4899, it is the key to reach 1.50 and the top of the channel.
Support:
1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
1.4723: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4899: short-term resistance.
1.4966: Thursday's high, and the resistance that stopped the price twice.
1.5032: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen stayed above the important support 90.14, and reached 91.31 on Friday. It seems that it stopped close to the upper limit of the rising channel drawn on the chart. The most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise. As for the support, the most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.
Support:
90.36: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.97: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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10-20-2009, 06:42 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 20/09/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 20, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar.
---
Tomorrow (Oct 21) The Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will publish its record of the committee's interest rate meeting held two weeks ago.
The meeting gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK, and records the votes of the individual members of the Committee.
If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the yesterday's resistance 1.4899, and reached the first target of this break 1.4966, and came close to 1.50 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4993). We will adopt this top as resistance of the day, if broken we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5040, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. on the other hand, the support 1.4964 obviously held during the last few hours, that is why we will consider it the short-term most important support. And if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4828 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4891 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop.
Support:
1.4964: lowest price on intraday charts during the last few hours.
1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
Resistance:
1.4993: short-term resistance.
1.5040: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
1.5082: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen stopped exactly at the first resistance in yesterday's report (highest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.97), and it did not break the support at 90.07, which means that yesterday's movement did not have any technical impact, and did not break the important support nor the important resistance. The most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.73, the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.
Support:
90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
89.64: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.73: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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10-21-2009, 07:54 AM
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Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 21/10/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 21, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar.
---
The US Department of Labor will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report Tomorrow (22 Oct).
The Report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast last weeks measure of 514.00K to rise to 518.00K.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the yesterday's support 1.4964, and reached the first target of this break, and Fibonacci important support 1.4891, tested it strongly, but eventually it survived (yesterday's low 1.4881). We will adopt this support level as support of the day, because if it holds, this would mean that the short-term correction is already over, and that we are heading to areas above yesterday's high 1.4993. But, if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4480, and if this is the case, targets will not be less than 1.4797, and may be 1.4737 also. Short-term resistance is 1.4950, and if broken, we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5048, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. The support level at 1.4891 is the most important level for today, and is the line separating positive areas from negative.
Support:
1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
1.4797: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4950: short-term resistance.
1.5000: psychological level.
1.5048: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen with amazing accuracy at the first support in yesterday's report (lowest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.06), and then rose to 91.05, breaking 90.73 on the way, but what followed was a modest move. The most important support is the Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 89.77, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.90, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.
Support:
89.77: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
89.38: Oct 7th high.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.90: short-term resistance.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
--
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
|
10-26-2009, 11:51 AM
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Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 26/10/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 26, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar.
---
The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).
The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.
The indicator is concluded from a survey of around 1000 companies.
A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.
Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Australian Market has seen an improving trend ever since the low reading of Business Confidence this February which stood at -42.
---
Euro Dollar
We can say that the Euro is still facing trouble in the 1.5045-1.5062 area, and with closing on towards 1.5082 very slowly, we should be on the watch for a top near this level, where a relatively sizable correction is expected to begin. The most important resistance for now is 1.5082, and only breaking it would weaken the probability of a top formation in this area. The most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly charts, which meets the moving average SMA100 at 1.4992. If broken, we expect a correction to match the rise from 1.4480, which would take the price in the next few days to 1.4840 at the very least. But, if things go against our expectations, and the price rise and breaks 1.5082, that would open the way towards 1.5144 & 1.5200.
Support:
1.4992: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and the moving average SMA100.
1.4896: clear support area on the hourly chart.
1.4840: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.5082: previous daily high from 2008.
1.5144: previous support area that contained more than one daily low during last year.
1.5200: previous resistance area from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen reached 92 for the first time in more than a month. And after breaking 91.63, its is only logical to say that the odds favor a continuation of this slow rise, probably to our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 91.94, and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.47, provided by the rising trendline on the 15 minute chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance meets the SMA100. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.
Support:
91.47: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
90.90: the previous known resistance, and the moving average SMA100.
89.38: Oct 19th low.
Resistance:
91.94: intraday resistance.
92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
|
10-28-2009, 09:05 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 28/10/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 28, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar.
---
The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Oct 29).
The report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts predict last weeks measure of 531.00k to drop to 520.00k
---
Euro Dollar
In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in yesterday's report, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4927 with great accuracy (yesterday's high 1.4926), then dropped breaking the support 1.4861, and reached the first target of that break 1.4771 with great accuracy as well (yesterday's low 1.4769). We still favor more downside movement, which is an expectation built on the negative technical outlook after breaking 1.4992, but we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 300 pips so far. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from yesterday's low, currently at 1.4801, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the sharp drop, in order to break 1.4771, and target Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up move from 1.4480, at 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4844, and breaking it would target the area between 1.4881 & 1.4949. If the negative outlook is to persist, the later (1.4949) should hold.
Support:
1.4801: the rising trendline from yesterday's low on the intraday charts.
1.4760: Oct 13th low.
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4844: Monday's low.
1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday's drop.
1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.
---
USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen stayed below the resistance 92.27, broke the support 91.98, and reached the first target for this break 91.26 successfully. With this down move, we are getting closer to the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, currently at 90.76, making it support of the day. Staying above it, would give this pair a chance to correct the drop from Monday's high 92.31, creating a correction that could reach 91.84, the most important resistance for the short-term. We believe that the borders of the current area are support 90.76 and resistance 97.84, and before breaking any of them, it would be difficult to predict the next move's direction. And we believe that the direction of that move will be the direction of the break. If we break support 90.76, that would mean we broke the rising trend channel, and the trend for the short and medium terms, and that would take the price close to 90 again. On the other hand, breaking resistance 91.84 would mean that the drop from Monday's high is over, and that we are on the way to 92.52-58.
Support:
90.76: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly.
90.06: Oct 20th low.
89.61: Oct 12th low.
Resistance:
91.54: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for now.
92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
|
10-29-2009, 06:22 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 29/10/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 29, 2009
Free webinar TODAY - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar.
---
Traders await tomorrows announcement (Oct 30) by the Bank of Japans Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the new monthly short term interest rate.
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the JPY.
Analysts expect no new changes from the banks executives, with this months interests remaining stable at 0.10%.
---
Euro Dollar
In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in the past two days, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4844 with great accuracy (highest price after the issuance of the report is 1.4840), then dropped breaking the support 1.4801, and reached the first target of that break 1.4702. And after reaching 1.4702, we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 400 pips so far. Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from .4480, which is at 1.4702, and breaking it would mean that the drop coming from 1.5061 will be larger than our expectation, and the next targets will be 1.4649 and 1.4610. Short-term resistance is 1.4737, and breaking it would target the Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.4827, and may be Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. If the negative outlook is to persist, the Euro should not break the most important resistance for the medium-term 1.4916.
Support:
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
1.4610: previous support.
Resistance:
1.4737: short-term resistance.
1.4827: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4872: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke 90.76 and had some drop after that, but it stopped before 90. In spite of that, the technical outlook became more negative, because we broke the rising channel that we have been monitoring lately. The most important support for the short-term is 90.16, and until this moment it managed to hold above it. If it can maintain to do so, we expect a correction for the down move from 92.31. But if it is broken, more of the drop is to be expected, first towards the important 89.61, the last important support above 89, since the next important support is 88.82. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short-term is 91.02, which represents both Fibonacci 38.2%, and also the retest level for the broken channel. If broken, we expect to rise towards the important 91.52, and if we are in front of a correction, we should not break this level. But if a surprise happens and we break it, the price would be on the way back to 92.17.
Support:
90.16: short-term support.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
88.82: previous support & Oct 14th low.
Resistance:
91.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, and the retest level for the broken channel, important resistance.
91.52: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, important resistance.
92.17: previous well known resistance area.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
|
11-02-2009, 08:15 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 53
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Fundamental Weekly Outlook
EU:
Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.3), Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.1, Expected 51.1), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Expected 50.7).
Wednesday: France PMI Services (Previous 57.8, Expected 57.8), Germany PMI Services (Previous 50.9, Expected 50.9), Euro-zone PMI Services (Previous 52.3, Expected 52.3). Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous 0.4%, Expected -0.4%) & YoY (Previous -7.5%, Expected -7.7%).
Thursday: Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Expected 0.2%)
& YoY (Previous -2.6%, Expected -2.4%). ECB Rate Decision (Previous 1.00%, Expected 1.00%) & then Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference.
Friday: France Trade Balance (Previous -3.4 B, Expected -3.0 B). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -20.4%, Expected -13.6%).
US:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 52.6, Expected 53.0).
Tuesday: Factory Orders (Previous -0.8%, Expected 1.0%).
Wednesday: FED/FOMC Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
(Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 530K, Expected 520K).
Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.8%, Expected 9.9%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -263K, Expected -175K). Wholesale Inventories (Previous -1.3%, Expected -1.0%).
JP:
Monday: Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Previous -3.1%, Expected -2.1%)
Thursday: BOJ Board Meeting Minutes (text report).
Friday: Leading Index CI (Previous 83.2, Expected 86.2), Coincident Index CI (Previous 91.2, Expected 92.5).
UK:
Monday: PMI Manufacturing (Previous 49.5, Expected 50.0).
Wednesday: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 71.0, Expected 73.0), PMI Services (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.5).
Thursday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous -2.5%, Expected 1.2%) & YoY (Previous -11.2%, Expected -10.3%). BoE Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Expected 0.50%).
Friday: PPI Input MoM (Previous -0.5%, Expected 1.5%) & YoY (Previous -6.5%, Expected -1.3%). PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.4%, Expected 1.9%), PPI Core MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.4%, Expected 2.0%).
AU:
Monday: House Price Index QoQ (Previous 4.2%, Expected 3.0%) &YoY House Price Index (Previous -1.4%, Expected 4.3%).
Tuesday: RBA Decision about the interest rate on the Australian Dollar (Previous 3.25%%, Expected 3.50%).
Wednesday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%).
Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -1524 M, Expected -2150 M).
CA:
Thursday: Building Permits MoM (Previous 7.2%, Expected N/A). Ivey PMI (Previous 61.7%, Expected 58.0).
Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.4%, Expected 8.4%). Net Change in Employment (Previous 30.6K, Expected 10.0K).
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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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11-02-2009, 10:01 AM
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Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 02/11/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 2, 2009
Free webinar - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar.
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UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Oct 3rd).
The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP since it points to consumer optimism, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts forecast an increase on lasts months figure of 71.00 to 72.00.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the short-term resistance 1.4737, and reached the first target suggested for this break at 1.4827 successfully. The most important question for now is this: Is the current rise a corrective or impulsive move? We believe that the limit separating those two possibilities is 1.4916, which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5061. And as long as the Euro stays below this resistance it is considered a corrective rise, while breaking it would announce more upside movement to come, probably to reach new highs above the last top 1.5061. The first resistance in front of us is 1.4872, and if it is broken we will head towards the important test of 1.4916, and if this one is broken we will target 1.4980 first, on the way to higher targets. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, currently at 1.4786, and if broken we will test 1.4702 again, and if this one is broken we will head towards 1.4649.
Support:
1.4786: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low on the intraday & hourly charts.
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
Resistance:
1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4980: Oct 26th low.
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USD/JPY
As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here. That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.
Support:
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
88.64: Oct 9th low.
Resistance:
90.23: Oct 29th low.
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
91.28: the retest level of the broken channel.
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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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11-03-2009, 06:44 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 03/11/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 3, 2009
Free webinar - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar.
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change, with the interest rate remaining at 0.25%.
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Euro Dollar
In spite of the importance of the 1.4682 support that has stopped price twice exactly at the same price, we will not wait until it is broken to turn our outlook for the Euro to negative. We will set out most important support at Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4744, because it is the last important support defending 1.4682, and if 1.4744 is broken, the odds of breaking 1.4682 on a third attempt will be big. The most important support for the short-term is 1.4809, provided by the falling trendline from 1.4926, and breaking it would give the Euro some strength that could be enough to test Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. We will await a break of either of those levels before deciding on today's direction. If we break support at 1.4744, that will mean a continuation of falling on the short-term and targeting the important bottom 1.4649 and may be 1.4610 after that. But if we break the resistance 1.4809, today's direction would be up, and the suggested targets would be 1.4872 first, and may be 1.4916.
Support:
1.4744: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
1.4610: Sep 21st low.
Resistance:
1.4980: the falling trendline from 1.4926.
1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
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USD/JPY
Down to the pip, the Dollar-Yen stopped at Fibonacci resistance specified in yesterday's report 90.68 (yesterday's high is EXACTLY 90.68), and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. Thats why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.16, after the price literally "sat" on it for the past few hours. If we break this support the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for yesterday, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance that we talked about (90.68),makes it the most important resistance, and only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will be heading to a test the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), which is currently at 90.95, and that would be an important test if it happens.
Support:
90.16: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
90.95: the upper limit of the short-term downtrend and the trendline descending from last week tops.
91.60: Oct 29th high.
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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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11-04-2009, 06:56 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 53
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 04/11/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 4, 2009
FREE WEBINAR TODAY - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar.
---
Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow
The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast 520.00K, down from 530.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke short-term support 1.4744 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.4649. But the point where yesterday's drop stopped, uncovered a very harmonized channel, and price has touched its lines a whole 7 times. Yesterday's low was exactly at the bottom of that channel, as the attached chart shows (hourly chart). We will monitor this channel to try and specify the direction, and we strongly believe that if this channel is broken to the downside, the medium-term price direction will be in a downtrend. The bottom of the channel is currently at 1.4649 which makes this level the most important support for the short-term. On the other hand, resistance congregate its power in one important area, where we find the falling trendline from 1.5061, the moving average SMA100, and Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4762 (calculated for the 5 waves dropping from 1.4843 to the orthodox bottom 1.4631 and not the price bottom 1.4625), which clearly makes this area the most important of all resistance levels. A break of the 1.4649 support will put the Euro under pressure and that would push it lower to 1.4559, then the important bottom 1.4480, and later to 1.4404. While a break of the resistance 1.4762 ill give the Euro a chance to catch a break and to correct upwards towards 1.4846 and may be 1.4897.
Support:
1.4649: the bottom of the coordinated channel on the hourly chart, and the most important support for medium-term.
1.4559: Fibonacci 38.2% for medium-term.
1.4480: Oct 2nd low.
Resistance:
1.4762: important resistance area combining Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the moving average SMA100, and the falling trendline from 1.5061..
1.4846: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
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USD/JPY
After stopping on Monday, at Fibonacci resistance 90.68 down to the pip, Dollar-Yen stopped yesterday at the moving average SMA100, with the same kind of accuracy. And as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels (and moving averages as well) is an evidence that the trend in down. Thats why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.21. If we break this support the downtrend will resume, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for the past two days, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance (90.68), makes it the most important resistance, and to add to that, the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), is currently at the same level. And only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will expect price to reach 91.28 then the important resistance 91.63.
Support:
90.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the falling line of the downtrend, important resistance.
91.28: previous intraday important top.
91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.
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