Forexpros Daily Analysis, Sep 30, 2009


Free webinar tomorrow - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro stopped just below the most important resistance in yesterday's report 1.4639 (Asian session high was 1.4631). But even though, it is trading now above the falling channel, after it succeeded in breaking it. Still, we can spot a trendline that stopped the Euro, which is the rising trendline from inside the falling channel. We can clearly see that price stopped accurately at this line, running currently at 1.4639, the most important resistance for today as it was for yesterday. If we break it to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776, and may be areas above 1.48 later this week. The most important support is 1.4590, which represents the retest level of the channel that was broken during the Asian session. And breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

Support:
• 1.4590: the retest level for the falling channel that was broken during the Asian session.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.

Resistance:
• 1.4639: the retest level of the rising trendline that was previously broken.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
• 1.4776: previous resistance.

---

USD/JPY

We did not even come close to 89.23, but on the contrary tried to break 90.20, but could not hold above it more than a few minutes, then returned fast to below 90 again. And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.19, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
• 91.19: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
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Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis, Oct 1, 2009


Free webinar today! - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt). If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over. On the other hand, if we break 1.4622 we will head first to the resistance area that stopped the price twice yesterday and during the Asian session 1.4668-1.4672. We do not expect a lot of trouble here, on the contrary we would expect to pass it, and reach 1.47 and above, especially the important resistance 1.4720.

Support:
• 1.4563: short-term support.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4622: short-term resistance.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
• 1.4776: previous resistance.

---

USD/JPY

Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.01, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90-91.01: previous intraday support/resistance, plus the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 91.82: previous support/resistance.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
_________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros.com


How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit

Hosted by David Hunt of Turtle Trading

Start: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST/13:00GMT

In February 2007, Original Turtle Trading's Russell Sands created a new system for Forex, based on the principles handed down by Market Wizard Richard Dennis in futures.

This webinar will review the very same Turtle Forex system which generated 200% in 2007 and 196% return in 2008.


Click here to join

=================

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the falling trend channel for the short-term, twice, but in the two times it stopped at 1.4646. Which will make this resistance specifically the most important for the short-term. A break here would be a confirmation of the break of the descending channel, and the start of the rise back to areas above 1.47, specially 1.4720. For the next few days, a break of 1.4646, and successfully reaching areas above 1.47, might mean the end of the downtrend falling from 1.4842, and the start of the rise that will challenge this top. The most important support for the short-term is the broken line of the falling channel, and the retest level at 1.4588. It will be the most important support for today because breaking it would mean that the price is back inside the falling channel, which will bring Fibonacci levels 1.4509 & 1.4430 back into focus.

Support:
• 1.4588: the retest level of the broken channel.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.
• 1.4358-1.4362: the important support area which include many daily highs and lows, the latest of which were Sep 7th, Aug 24th & 25th highs.

Resistance:
• 1.4646: short-term resistance that stopped the price twice.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.


GBP USD

As we expected, the Pound broke the 1.5902 support, and reached the first suggested target 1.5812, stopping only 10 pips below it, before it started the rise that reached 1.60 this morning. Stopping at this level in specific has a reason: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is exactly at 1.6000, this will be the most important resistance for today, and will determine the direction of the following hours. Short-term support is 1.5923, and if it's broken, the Pound will continue its decline which touched 1.58, and will try to reach areas below Friday's low 1.5802, with a focus on the possible test the important support area 1.5754-1.5776 again, which will be a very important test if it happens. On the other hand, if a surprise happens and we break 1.6000, the Pound will be on the rise for the short-term at least, to retest Wednesday's high 1.6123, or may be to try and reach Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.6199.

Support:
• 1.5923: short-term support.
• 1.5829: intraday support from friday.
• 1.5754: the bottom of the important support area 1.5754-1.5776.

Resistance:
• 1.6000: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.6073: previous intraday support.
• 1.6123: Wednesday's high, and if this top it taken, 1.6199 will be the most important resistance for both the short & medium terms.

Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.com


Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 6, 2009


Free webinar today! - How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit

Expert: David Hunt
When: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST

In February 2007, Original Turtle Trading's Russell Sands created a new system for Forex, based on the principles handed down by Market Wizard Richard Dennis in futures.

This webinar will review the very same Turtle Forex system which generated 200% in 2007 and 196% return in 2008.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro accurately reached the retest level that we specified as 1.4588 (yesterday's low 1.4592), and retested the broken channel successfully. Then it started rising and reached the important resistance 1.4720 this morning, which was specified as the most important target in yesterday's report (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4716). The Euro could keep these benefits, and advance even more if price stays above the short-term support 1.4668, which is the rising trendline from Friday's high, on the intraday charts. If we stay above it, there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.

Support:
• 1.4668: the rising trendline from Friday's low.
• 1.4592: yesterday's low.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.

Resistance:
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

It seems like the Dollar-Yen is moving with in a pattern that looks like a triangle, since in the past 10 days we have seen the formation of 3 descending tops at 90.39, 90.15 & 89.96, and the formation of 3 ascending bottoms 88.22, 88.59 & 88.96. That is why the borders of this pattern (support 88.74 & resistance 89.77) are the most important for the short-term, and breaking either of them is what will give the next move its direction. If we break 98.77, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.66, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. On the other hand, if we break 89.20 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 88.74: the lower trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, the most important support for the short-term.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
• 87.10: 2009 low.

Resistance:
• 89.77: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
• 90.66: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 91.63: strong previous resistance.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 7, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682, and with that, it stayed for the whole past 24 hours above the important support specified in yesterday's report 1.4668, keeping our positive outlook intact. But even with this new high, things have changed a lot, because the Euro is threatened with a correction for the whole move from 1.4480, after spotting reversal signals on the Japanese candlestick charts: a (Shooting Star) pattern on the hourly chart, and an (Engulfing) pattern on the 4 hour chart. That is why we will drive our attention towards Fibonacci retracement levels for the move from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. But, we will not assume there is a correction underway, before trading below the moving average SMA50, which clearly supported the price since Friday, and is running currently at 1.4682. As long as the price is above the moving average, we will maintain a positive outlook for the short-term, and we believe that there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.

Support:
• 1.4682: the moving average SMA50, supporting the Euro since Friday.
• 1.4621: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday.
• 1.4587: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. In case this support is broken, 1.4509 will be a key support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen has tried to break the lower limit of the supposed triangle pattern, but it was not able to overcome Friday's low, if we are to receive a confirmation of the break of the triangle we need to see the price below Friday's low 88.59. That is why this support is the most important for today. On the other hand, the resistance of the day is the upper limit of the triangle formation 89.63. And breaking either of them is what will give the next move its direction. If we break 89.63, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.55, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. On the other hand, if we break 88.59 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 88.59: Friday's low.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
• 87.10: 2009 low.

Resistance:
• 89.63: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
• 90.55: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 91.63: strong previous resistance.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 8, 2009

Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

First we would like to draw your kind attention to the ECB rate decision that will come out later today, and to president Trichet's news conference that will follow. The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682. And with that, 1.4776 became the most important resistance for the short-term, and the key to reach new tops. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. On the other hand the most important support for the short-term is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4695, holding above it is crucial for the upward movement. But if it's broken, we expect a test of one of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

Support:
• 1.4695: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4587: Previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke 88.59 and reached the target suggested in yesterday's report with astonishing accuracy when the drop stopped at 87.98, compared to our first target 87.97. Then it went up to 89.38 sharply in what might turn out to be some sort of intervention by the Japanese government. And now, it is moving above the important support 87.97, which is the key to reach 87.10. On the other hand, the resistance 89.38, which is close to the top of the triangle formation, is going to be the resistance of the day. If we break 89.38, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to go above 90 again, where the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.40, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. If we break 87.97, the direction would stay as it is (down), and that would mean we are on our way to test or may be break the 14-year low 87.10.

Support:
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
• 87.10: 2009 low.
• 86.40: previous support from 1995.

Resistance:
• 89.38: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
• 89.96: Oct 5th high.
• 90.40: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 12, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro stopped at the resistance established in Friday's report 1.4772 with amazing accuracy, a stop which was a signal that we are heading to areas below 1.47. And now, there is a resistance that combines the rising trendline drawn from 1.4566, and the falling trendline drawn from 1.4816, and is currently at 1.4725, if price stay below it, we are heading south. The probability of more downside grows with a break of the nearby support 1.4693. Such a break would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509. The most important resistance is short-term is of course 1.4725. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901.

Support:
• 1.4693: short-term support.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 1.4725: an area combining the rising trendline from 1.4566, and the falling trendline from 1.4816.
• 1.4761: previous daily high.
• 1.4826: previous daily high.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen is testing the limit of the downtrend, which is represented by the falling trendline from August 9th top, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

Support:
• 89.32: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.29: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 13, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday's high 1.4812, Thursday's high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

Support:
• 1.4728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 1.4788: the falling trendline from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
• 1.4826: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

---


USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen failed to capitalize on the break of 90.29. And although the falling trendline on the 4H was broken, the falling trendline on the hourly chart was not, and price stopped just below it, near the well known resistance 90.40. We will shift attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

Support:
• 89.21: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 89.01: Fibonacci 61.8% , and the most important support for the short-term.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

Resistance:
• 90.37: the falling trendline on the hourly chart, plus the resistance that stopped yesterday's rise.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct. 14, 2009

Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Traders in the U.S await tomorrow's publication of the Department of Labor's monthly CPI measurement (Oct 15).

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change in the current rate, standing at 0.10%

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Euro Dollar

Finally, the Euro reached new tops for this year, and came very close to our favorite target 1.4901 (the high until this very moment is 1.4898). By taking a look at the drawn channel we find that the important question now is will 1.50 be the next stop? To answer this question, we must estimate the strength of the resistance levels in this area, especially 1.4901 & 1.4953. We expect that in case of a break 1.4901, the Euro will be able to reach 1.50. But, if 1.4901 succeeds in capping the price, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to 1.4793 first, and if broken, we can expect more drop. The important support now is the nearby 1.4872, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. To summarize: 1.4901 is resistance of the day, a break would lead to 1.50, while the support of the day is 1.4872, and a break here would lead to 1.4793 as the first important stop, and if broken we will head to the important support on the intraday charts 1.4755.

Support:
• 1.4874: short-term support.
• 1.4793: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4755: the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

Resistance:
• 1.4901: previous daily high.
• 1.4953: previous daily high.
• 1.5000: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen dropped to 89 again, and we might see it test 88.68 today. But before that, we need to see a break of 88.96, which is the most important support for the short-term, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break. We will still pay attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, which is currently at 90.27, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.27, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63.

Support:
• 88.96: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.27: the falling trendline on the hourly chart.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 15, 2009


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Tomorrow (Oct 15) The US Treasury Department will publish the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions Report.

The report measures the monthly difference in value between US purchases of long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of US long-term securities.
The TIC flows is a key resource of the US government for offsetting the Trade Deficit. It can give a good reflection on demand for USD
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last month's measurement of 15.30B to fall to 11.00B.

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Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro continued its rise, but until this very moment did not reach our target of 1.50. By taking a look at the two drawn channels, we see that they unite just above 1.50, which gives this area a lot of importance. And we assume very reasonably that this area is one of the best candidates to change short-term direction. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. On the other hand, if it is broken, we will get closer to 1.51, since we see the next stop as 1.5082, on the way to higher prices. The short-term support now is the nearby 1.4933, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

Support:
• 1.4933: short-term support.
• 1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

Resistance:
• 1.4962: previous daily high.
• 1.5011: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.5082: previous daily high.

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USD/JPY

Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price. And we will adopt it as resistance of the day. Breaking it would give the chance to test another slightly more important line which is the falling trendline from 95.05, currently at 90.29, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. breaking 90.29 means that the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. As for the support, it will stay as it was in yesterday's report 88.96, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

Support:
• 88.96: short-term support.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 89.64: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 90.44
• 90.29: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 95.05.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies Section.