Stock Hideout - View Single Post - Finding the bottom

obnoxious2 · #10 (**permalink**) 11-19-2008, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naamplao

Actually I have to back off my initial excitement of discovering this tool. I don't think pinchers necessarily finds a bottom. However they indicate the approach of a bottom as this chart of GM shows

GM - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

There is only one pincher in this chart and that is in mid-July. There was a nice bounce of 50+% and for 2 months afterward it seemed that a decline of over a year had stopped....but it has since fallen again. Showing me that normal charting practises apply after a pincher rise turns back.

If you look at the CISCO chart in my original post here again, you will see a series of pinchers getting lower and slightly lower until the bottom is actually found and it rises for real.

I think Pinchers are good for a 20+% jump in price, they hint that a bottom is near...but beyond that I don't know anything that predicts a long term bull run.

I never thought of that...good question...what parameters would we use? The same ones but a mirror image???

Well a RSI of >70 seems obvious....looking at the chart for GM again it seems that the ADX is also > 40 in these instances too...interesting. The PPO seems to be above +5 at these times

We are not talking about small falls here.....rather large ones.

RSI > 70
PPO > 5
ADX > 40

RNNM - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Look at this example for Ron Motors RNNM. The stock ramped up quickly on May 30...the RSI, PPO and ADX rise as well...When the price fell the RSI dropped but the ADX and PPO kept rising...the price rebounded on June 2... RSI rose again to over 70% and PPO/ADX continued to rise...price fell again and so did the RSI but the ADX/PPO continued to stay high.....then on June 9 all three indicators started to fall along with the share price and the price fell hard losing 50% of its value.

Hhhhhmmmmmmmmmmm....could you be onto something??? or is this a fluke.

It will take more study....Interesting.

You are not half as obnoxious as your name implies

Come over to my Back Bacon and a 2-4 Lounge and grab a beer and conversation sometime

Very good questions.

Thanks for the examples and that PM on AAPL seemed like a better example than RNNM.

As for adding something else to your pincher critera. I found that the Williams %R seems to be a really good indicator for when the RSI will go >70 or <30. This way one should be able to have more time to analyze the stock.

Haha and my name, I used to be a very obnoxious kid back many many years ago and I just stuck with it. And I'll def. stop by your Back Bacon sometime!